Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comPost by BolwerkPost by h***@bbs.cpcn.comEmpty nesters and widowed seniors also left the neighborhood, too.
...and have invested time, money, social circles, friends, and equity
where they live now.
Which demonstrates how much people sacrificed to flee a declining
neighborhood. It's funny, social advocates worry about existing
residents when a neighborhood gentrifies, but no one cares about
existing residents when a neighborhood declines. The book, "The Bronx
is Burning" goes into some detail about declining NYC neighborhoods.
It's probably harder for poorer people when a neighborhood is going up.
Rent goes up, food goes up, everything goes up.
It's less of an issue in the 'burbs, where if you own something, you can
always sell it and take off to Florida. Rent doesn't get you equity.
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comPost by BolwerkI agree. But a lot of people left not because of a problem, but because
of a perceived problem. If you're going to be perfectly logical about
it, you're more likely to be killed because of suburban traffic than
urban crime.
The odds of being killed, either by crime or by auto are so low that
it's not statistically relevent (although my old block had three
homicides after we left and a jr high teacher was murdered by a kid).
A better comparison might be comparing apples to apples, such as being
the victim of crime in the old vs. new neighborhoods.
Why is that better? A violent death is a violent death, whether you're
pushed down a manhole, nailed by a car, hit by an asteroid, or take a
bullet.
Steven O'Neill even posted something roughly discussing that a while
ago. In the best case, moving to LI from NYC, the increased safety was
a statistical wash. Your increased odds of getting killed by a car ate
up any increase in safety (of course, NYC and LI are both much safer
compared to other places around the country).
http://www.streetsblog.org/2007/05/30/long-island-extremely-safe-or-especially-dangerous/
http://groups.google.com/group/nyc.transit/browse_frm/thread/e9b9dec3892581a0/cbc3481e2878c02b?lnk=st&q=#
Anyway, the only difference is the perception that cities are less safe.
(Oh, and taking this thing with roads v. crime a little further: I bet
you're much safer as long as you don't go near bad neighborhoods.
That's probably how a lot of people end up in trouble in cities. They
go to bad neighborhoods, say looking for drugs, and in the course of
doing so they're announcing two sensitive facts: they're not from around
here, and they have money.)
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comIs it perception or reality that stores in the old neighborhood have
the cashiers in plexiglass booths?
It's reality. But, they have higher odds of being killed in the course
of a robbery, since they're next to cash registers. That's true in new
neighborhoods too, and becoming more common.
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comPost by BolwerkSadly, one of the main platitudes of economics, that people make
rational decisions, is wrong.
People make what they believe to be rational decisions, although
exactly what is "rational" is up for debate. People rationalize
buying a gas guzzler SUV because they think it's safer for the kids,
whether or not it really is. People rationalize buying bottled water
because they think it is cleaner or tastier than tap water, even
though it often is not.
Not all things objective are rational...
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comHowever, some decisions, such as the purchase of stylish clothing, may
appear to be irrational but actually are not. If someone's
perceptions are strong enough that buying a certain product makes them
feel better, the decision is not so irrational. Even Consumers
Reports has recognized this, recognizing that luxury product frills
are important to people.
...and not all things subjective are irrational.
The SUV is measurably more dangerous. Tap water, in some places, is
measurably safer. Clothing and cosmetics have social implications which
can't easily be measured objectively. Sometimes impressing a man might
mean wearing no makeup, sometimes it might mean dressing like a hooker.
It would vary from man to man (ask Tammy Faye; she know how to pick them).
Rational might be right or wrong, of course. All the things you mention
above are rational, assuming you aren't rational enough to fact check. ;)
But fleeing a place because of an emotional sensation that there's more
danger isn't really rational, whether the place is in fact more
dangerous or not.
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comHaving lived in the neighborhood, moving out was indeed a rational
decision. The problems were not a "perception" fed by sensationalist
news media but reality, like the blood and urine my mother had to wash
off her sidewalk.
Must....hold....in....tampon....under....dress....joke.....
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comPost by BolwerkAgain, that's an anecdote. The overall trend, at least along the NEC,
has been the opposite: cities spaces are getting more valuable. There
are desirable suburban spaces, as well, like Beverly Hills.
The trend for real estate everywhere has been to go up, even in crappy
areas. But some areas go up much faster than others. All along the
NEC there are plenty of dilapidated areas, both in cities and suburbs.
House built in 1950, about 1,000 sq feet. Both available originally
for VA loans.
1950 price 2007 price
Levittown: $11,000 $250,000
Phila: $11,000 $125,000
You're not Jack May. I never see you intentionally spreading
misinformation.
I believed you. But it's *still* anecdotal. Land values as a whole are
rising in big cities, even if some parts have falling values (thanks to
the subprime mess, for instance). Last I heard, even Philly is rising,
albeit barely.
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comPost by BolwerkPost by h***@bbs.cpcn.comI agree that transit shouldn't be built in non-sensical places. I am
saying that transit is a victim of social trends, much of which are
beyond its control, esp now that it's govt owned and operated.
It's more a victim of political trends. Central governments don't like
spending money on cities, even when the money that goes into their
coffers comes from cities. Even when they do spend money in cities,
it's often in the wrong way, as part of a one-size-fits-all lump sum
(roads rather than transit, or failing to address unique issues with
urban schools, for instance).
Not totally. Much of the decline in urban schools was due to the kids
themselves, not the school. The very same school buildings and
faculty that produced outstanding students had big problems at exactly
the same time with other students. Unfortunately, the newcomers did
not place the same priority on education as their predecessors and the
kids were not well behaved (many were outright violent) and not as
motivated to study and learn.
On that note, suburbanites don't really give *that* much of a damn about
school quality either. Pure and simple, there's been a country-wide
decline in educational quality over the course of the past century.
I really blame it on too much feel-good democracy. American schools are
more democratic than American elections. Parents have too much power to
get their kids free passes, and standards just keep dropping because
failure is stigmatized more than learning is appreciated. I don't get
it, but it seems to me that suburban school boards often don't even
require a Ph.D. in education to serve --- a plumber could be elected.
(I got no problems with plumbers. It's a perfectly honorable
profession. But it doesn't qualify you to vote for a biology curriculum.)
Post by h***@bbs.cpcn.comI visited my old elemntary school (built 1948) and found that the
building had been rehabbed. It's got air conditioning, tons of
computers, foreign languages, teachers' aides, smaller classes, and
free breakfast and lunch for all students (no food at all in my day).
Clearly the school system is spending money to meet contemporary needs
of the students.
Bah. Here are their needs: teach them to read and reason early. Most
kids can learn that with or without computers. I wish they'd teach
logic in high school. It should be mandatory, but then if it were, I
guess it would lead to a lot of dumb politicians being recalled. :-\
(Admittedly, computers probably are helpful in some cases, particularly
with students with learning disabilities.)